Gartner predicts HP to sell 3 million TouchPads in 2011, own 3% of market by 2015 40
Mon, 11 Apr 2011 10:54 pm EDT
Predictions are a tricky thing. Just ask anybody who guesstimated how many iPads Apple was going to sell in the first year. They were all wrong. So you can understand why we reach for the salt shaker any time somebody starts making predictions about what will be selling well in the coming year, let alone what will be selling well in five years.
But, Gartner Research is fairly reliable in these things. That’s not to say that their predictions can be counted on, but more than they’re one of the more scientifically-grounded prediction makers. As such, when they expect the tablet market to explode from 17.6 million this year to 294.1 million in 2015, our interest piqued our interest. Gartner’s latest predictions forecast explosive growth for the tablet market, and that’s something we’re on board with.
What we’re not so sure about is where the final numbers shake out. We’re not going to kid ourselves in saying that HP has an easy road ahead of them in the tablet market. Apple may be the one entrenched player in the market, but Google stands to make significant headway and RIM’s BlackBerry PlayBook has a lot of name recognition going for it. But somehow we can’t see webOS tablets owning just 3% of the market in 2015 (granted, that’d be nearly 9 million tablets by Gartner’s predictions), just as we can’t see MeeGo even registering enough of a tick to warrant a 1% mark.
Everything else, well, it’s hard to say. Apple will certainly continue to be a strong player, but given how quickly Android has exploded in the smartphone market, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Android-powered tablets overwhelm the iPad in the next few years. As for the QNX-powered BlackBerry tablets? We’re not sure how that’s going to play out. Predictions are a tricky thing, and we’re no experts at it. We’ll leave that to the folks at Gartner.
Source: Gartner; Via: webOSroundup, Engadget
40 Comments
Gartner is wrong, a lot. Over 2 million android tablets were not sold last year. Samsung has never announced the real sales number, only sell-ins to retails. If Gartner is using a bogus number for Android, how can they be accurate?
No way QNX is going to be ahead of webOS. They may be getting a head start, but webOS will overtake them quick and never look back. Now iOS and Android, well that's a different story...
Agreed. Gartner does some good work. On this one, they must have used handset logic to come to a conclusion rather than thinking that this is a completely different market. HP's corporate sales alone will destroy RIM. At least HP can sell 1 OS and one development platform to the corporate client. That alone is going to save them cost and marginalize RIM.
Have you ever actually used QNX? The folks at QNX are good. Really, really good. Discounting them would be a big mistake.
I must wonder if Steve Jobs loses his battle with cancer, as my mother did, if that will have any short term, 18 to 24 month, impact on Apple that will allow HP to stake a larger marketshare than the article states. I also don't think that predictions 4 years out are very accurate since HP's re-launched WebOS smartphone line and the beginning of a tablet program have yet to occur. That said, as long as I get what I want, WebOS, then I really don't care as long as the market share keeps HP in the game - i.e. "In it to win it."
considering how little stuff like xoom are selling i wouldn't be surprised if the market panned out kinda like the mp3 player market where one guy has 90% and nobody knows the other guys. I just think everyone not selling an ipad is gonna have a tough time.
They may have 90% of the profit in the mp3-player market but not 90% of the market share.
you are right. i was reading an ipad stat. Sorry. so they have 77% of the market. so insert 77% where i put 90%. That's what i think it will be.
I'd like to revisit this at the end of this year to see if touchpad does reach 4% then in 2015 to see how it's doing. Who knows it could be doing better then 3%.
I think that in order to maintain that much of the market, the Android Tablets are gonna have to come out with another marketing strategy for the future... From a user who is somewhat technologically minded, after my research, I ended up buying an Ipad. I went that direction because there are 30 bazillion different Android tablets - some that are $200 and some that are $700... Not one of them sticks out to me more than the other. I wasnt sure what could be ran and what couldnt, as it is too much to keep up with (and Im only 30!) So I bought an Ipad. Its user friendly, and I KNOW that the apps that I want to run are going to run on it. When the Touchpad comes out, I will look into it, though, because I love WebOS!
Maybe Google will go all Nexus One on us again and demonstrate what they're looking to accomplish with tablets the same way they did with handsets.
I guess there is quite some movement on the market and interestingly enough we might experience the return of the stylus that HP used in there uncomfortable slate 500 devices, but with an operating system that cares about user interaction.
After the Apple Newton, the US-Robotics / 3coms / Palms and the sluggish OS but wonderful text recognition of MS-Windoes for pen devices now the whole story shifts to devices like the HTC Flyer.
Unfortunately the predictions of 1990 were true that the dreams of productively usable tablets that take user input via a finger and pen interface will take another twenty years.
Well, the time is now and despite HP's webOS efforts I currently do not see this in their equation.
However, if Apple continues the minimalistic iOS route there will be an end to thinner screens, less weight and more cameras much too soon. Although the apps market is a major driver that Apple wants to control with their restrictions, they already have quite some drag built up with it - so new user concepts most probably will not be implemented that easily as by their competitors.
Well, I still hope for a useful tablet that can fulfill the dreams of the 90's and delivers combined finger, text, sketching and voice input with a useful working time of more than 10-14h integrated into a wonderful world of cloud based services.
Well they haven't sold any yet. Are they actually going to manage to ship the Touchpad, Pre 3 or Veer this year?
i really hop they gett bigger than that
Is it just me or does that say "In Thousands of Units" not millions?
Yes, so you multiply the number by 1000, which gives 2796000 for webOS for 2011.
Basically I think that that prediction even MIGHT come out, just that the positions between QNX and webOS are switched^^^
On the other hand this has to be seen like a prediction on how much your fingernails will grow. Everything pans out smoothly until... you cut them^^
There are so many things that might happen until 2015, maybe we all are using the portable webOS-Watch with holographic display in 2015? ;)
>> asically I think that that prediction even MIGHT come out, just that the positions between QNX and webOS are switched^^^
Says the company that also predicted Android was going to be the biggest in 2012 and the company that says Windows Phone 7 is going to be at 2nd place....
By 2015 two new platforms could show up and shake the market as we know it.
These predictions dont mean squat.
Hmm, as ever it's a finger in the air and very dangerous to make these predictions. The mobile space is very fluid and a big seller today could be nowhere in 18 months.
I think HP will have more than 3% share absolutely - the tablet market is not as mature as the phone market and HP can take good share with a good sustained marketing campaign - with a focus on Apps and Games. I think HP will put the majority of their effort into the TouchPad and not the Veer or Pre3, phones will be a easier to crack after the TouchPad is a hit.
Previous commenter's got it right about Android - there is too much brand fragmentation with that platform which Google are addressing now with their Open (but closed) strategy with Honeycomb. Android tablets will very soon be two tier with the approved high value tablets competing with the iPad, Playbook and TouchPad and the Froyo based cheap ones carving out the bottom end of the market with no Google support.
Meego with 1%? No chance.
I can't believe that Windows tablets aren't on that chart - that's BS, Microsoft will be there and they'll take decent share, at least 10% imho.
5 Problems With Gartner’s Tablet Forecast
http://gigaom.com/mobile/tablet-forecast-gartner-2015/
QNX will win over HP WebOS?
I think they must be kidding!
QNX won't be better then WebOS.
QNX merely a copy of WebOS and more over they even not proud with their own OS, they make QNX support Android apps to make people like it.
It is absoultely ridiculous! Especially it is from RIM
Short words:
1. QNX merely a copy of WebOS,
2. QNX merely an emulator for Android OS
You mean it looks like webOS AND runs Android apps. Sold!
It doesn't run Android apps. It runs apps ported from Android to the BB app store. There's a difference.
If you said that you could load up any Android app unmodified from any android app source, THEN it runs Android apps.
However, if you say that it runs Android apps that have been modified to run on BB and uploaded to the BB store, then it's no longer running Android apps, but hybrid BB/Android apps.
If you run with the logic that Playbook runs Android apps then you could say that webOS runs iPhone apps.
It runs older Android apps not the ones that you'll be able to run on a Xoom or like Android tablet. You may want to reconsider your purchase before you make it.
Looking like something doesn't necessarily means that it will operate like one. The experience of using blackberry Playbook may be very different from using Palm Pre and may be not for the better. This happens a lot with company/people who copy. Something may look like another but it won't run like it.
Anroid Apps may be able to run on QNX but the issue is that they will need to be submitted to blackberry app store and still be running in an emulator. I guess technically all android apps run in an emulator however I doubt the performance of games will be the same. They could be just a select few games/apps that are submitted to blackberry appworld and curated/tested and made available. It also means that you will have to re-buy every android app you own AGAIN.
I think this is just a checkmark so that they can say "playbook is compatible with 200,000 apps when in reality it has ZERO since even email and calendar won't be available for several months. Also, keeping true to its corporate roots I am sure you will be paying for both of these (extra).
The QNX folks released a PC version of their OS about a decade ago. It had a nice desktop, a network stack, a modem driver, and a web browser.
..And it all booted and ran off of a 1.44 MB floppy disk. It ran on a PC with only 8MB of RAM.
What they should be able to do with modern tablet hardware should be fairly awesome, even using an emulator to run some of the software.
Former Palm CEO Ed Colligan on the then future iPhone:
"We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone, the PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in.'"
Palm underestimated Apple in 2006 and Apple stole Palm's lunch and now Google is eating the left overs. Palm fans back then decried Palm's lack of execution in competing against RIM, taking Apple serious and updating PalmOS (my Tungsten T3 never got a ColbaltOS update) or ever releasing the rumored Linux based O/S (eventually WebOs). Palm has always always had great ideas that they allowed to flounder.
Ultimately it doesn't matter who copies who or who's O/S gives geeks the warm and fuzzies. It comes down to timely execution and effective marketing which HPalm has always lacked. Unless HPalm actually ships product, no longer misses production cycles, provides satisfactory customer support (which Palm in the glory days used to be quite good at) and effectively markets devices such that consumers are compelled take a chance on WebOS, I wouldn't underestimate any potential competition.
A lot of people also aren't seeing the bigger picture... HP is making this a business minded tablet to boot.... built in VPN and Citrix, can't say that for Apple... as security is a big issue now in the business world.. and Apple doesn't push for business world.
And built in Office Apps...
"from 17.6 million this year"
Don't you mean last year?
Also, Gartner is basically predicting that tablets will sell ion the same volumes as PCs within 4 years. Not sure I can see that just yet, at least not until tablet functionality & usability approaches traditional PCs/laptops. Right now tablets are decent consumption devices but are relatively bad at content creation.
My problem or confusion on this prediction when I actually read this on a tweet yesterday by webOSroundup was that it stated 3 million tablets sold by the end of 2011 and 9 million sold by 2015.
3 million in half a yr but then only 3 million a yr for the next 3 yrs?? Im not an analyst but something doesnt seem right about that.
It depends on the price of touchpad. If it is $300. The market share can be over 50% I bet.
Not going to happen.
If they want market share - That has to happen - at least on Ver 1 of this tablet...
And they have to ship with 10,000+ Apps available in the AppCat.
I just ask myself:
WTF (WHERE THE F***) IS MICROSOFT IN THEIR PREDICTION???
I'll have to dig for the source but I recall reading about how MS wasn't going to have any direct competitor to the iPad et al until 2013. Until then they would rely on their current direction of putting Windows 7 on other companies hardware (e.g. HP Slate and HP and Toshiba convertibles)
It looks like they just cut-n-pasted some of the past smartphone market share percentages, left off Blackberry's share, and filled in the rest to match Apple's current sales.
Yeah - I don't buy these numbers. I think that Gartner looked at the consumer/oversized-smartphone market and then these numbers make sense - except for missing MS. I don't see Apple owning crucial vertical markets and Google will be niched.
As of today, only TouchPad can dominate the business markets because, a) serious vertical market developers will NEVER abide Apples distribution 'strategy', b) only HP has the cloud strength and back-end infrastructure to be a whole solution provider, c) HP far better knows how to address the enterprise market (EDS?), and d) I feel that HP will have a better enterprise security story, and that will be the Achilles heel in business markets.
Apple will probably always own the consumer, and they deserve it. It's what they want and they've done a fantastic job. Google has no incentive to prevail in any market, so they will indeed fragment and will not provide a cohesive solution set for any except hackers on the early adopter side of Moore's chasm.
The lions share of the market will go to the company that dominates vertical markets, and that could be HP if they can get their act together. If not, then my money would be on a come-behind strategy by IBM.