Hey Jim Cramer, Let Us Google That For You 35
So this Analyst Palm Pre Return Rate story is refusing to die. To get you caught up quickly - we had a poll here at PreCentral.net in our forums asking users whether or not they'd had to return their Pre. 40% (at the time) had. A financial analyst included said number in a report and pointed out that it wasn't exactly scientific - a fact our members understand implicitly. That fact got lost in the blogosphere shuffle and suddenly people are saying that the Pre has an unusually high return rate.
The latest financial analyst to repeat this number: Jim Cramer of CNBC - who cited the number but not the source. Listen, Jim, we're not going to go all Jon Stewart on you here, but it seems like some simple research might have helped you with your segment. Here, let us Google "Palm Pre Return Rate" for you. The number one story, Wired pointing out that the Pre's return rates aren't out of the norm1. The number two story, our very own post on the topic (you know, the source of the poll). Heck, if you bothered to check out the second poll on that story which we cheekily posted, you'll find that the return rate listed there was 30%. You'll also find that it was an internet poll at a site with a large number of picky power users who demand perfection from their Pre. That 30% number truly is unacceptable for our users, but whether or not it's indicative of the overall return rate is an open question.
Look, we plum don't know what the return rate of the Pre is. What we do know is that context is important and every time a bit of context gets stripped away from a controversial issue like this, it causes confusion. When the end of that chain of confusion is advice on how people should invest their money, well, we get a little salty about how that context got stripped out. When it comes to people's retirement, we'd like to think that analysts have a responsibility to do simple things like a 2 minute Google search-and-read first.
But since this whole fiasco started in our forums, we'll end it there: head on over to our thread on your Mad Money segment. Oh, what the heck, we can't resist one more poll. You know which option we think is the right one:
Thanks to Goyena for the video link!
35 Comments
.... its amazing that it has gotten this far
Whats MORE amazing is that the so called 'facts' that were pulled to use against Palm are opinions/polls from a site that is fundamentally dedicated to Palm and its prosperity.
Its just sad, really, when power users and cell phone/palm junkies can't just talk shop anymore without it leaking into facets of life that include people that DO NOT UNDERSTAND (Analysts/Jim Cramer/All the other people that are so obsessed with Apple's dominance that they will do anything to see Palm fail).
/sigh
According to a leading internet poll, the trend of citing an internet poll, discounting it for its unreliability and then using this poll as a basis for giving investment or electoral decisions, is a growing problem among bloggers and forums readers polled.
Ever heard of sampling error, pundits? That's another good subject to google: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/internet_polls/
P.S. Stop being a Google-fanboy, Dieter. Cramer can google this in Bing, or google it in Yahoo if he wants. Sheesh.
You can't google on Bing or Yahoo... that's just wrong...
if that chick can bing on Pre, you can google on bing. ;-)
"Googling in Bing" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0MKdjG1F_c
Cramer is damn near insane if you ask me lol,
But your second poll actually shows a return rate of about 40%.
1733 Pre's fine, never returned
496 Pre's returned once
262 Pre's returned more than once, lets say those multiple exchanges were only 2 Pre's each even those many claim more returns than that. So under that catagory theres really atleast 524 Pre's returned.
So thats 2491 total Pre's in that poll with 1020 returned, which i believe is about 40% not 30%. Your poll was getting a % of people not the actual phone returns.
and why you have a I don't have a pre to even mess up the numbers worse, you were trying to get was just stupid.
Lost some respect for him b/c of this whole rant. He obviously doesn't know much about technology, and for the record, I am not an Apple hater myself b/c I own an iPod and a Macbook too, and I love their stuff. I just think that everyone is underestimating the Pre, and those who do have never read or seen what makes it different from the rest.
Oh well, by now we are all used to people talking crap about the Palm Pre.. It's just a fact of life now.
Isn't Jim Cramer the guy who promoted Lenny Dykstra as a great investment advisor?
The poll in the forum is not scientific, and even blatantly UNscientific; that's for sure.
First, polls created by users tend to be flawed and poorly worded.
Second, people may communicate agreement or disagreement with their vote, whether the vote is accurate or not. For example, a person who dislikes the Pre could cast the most negative vote possible, even though that person never owned a Pre.
Third, people tend to flock to message boards to voice frustration, while people who are satisfied tend to remain silent. That is, the poll not based on a random subset of the population, but is based on a predictable subset of a community of users who are more likely to voice frustration. For example, if I see a thread about the oreo effect, I tend to skip it whether it is a poll or not, because I never had the oreo effect and I am not interested in discussing that topic. If the thread is a poll, you won't get my vote.
Also, the poll in this article should have been worded differently. The choices should be "competent financial analyst" and "reactionary goober who should do a little research before opening his big mouth." Then, when the poll turns out the way it did, someone could write an article about how reasearch shows that 97% of people in the world think that Jim Cramer is an incompetent financial analyst who is a reactionary goober who should do a little research before opening his big mouth.
So I tried to make the jump to Pre and went through 3 devices (which ironically were all fine) confirming that while my office is in a Sprint coverage area, its walls are apparently made out of CDMA kryptonite (AT&T GSM gets through no problem but Sprint and Verizon stop at the door). So my return rate was 100%. However, when I asked the guy at the Sprint store about Pre returns, he said the rate was about 15% and that 15% was the normal return rate for all of their smartphones.
Its all anecdotal unless someone actually publishes real data, but it sure seems to me that the Pre return rates are pretty consistent with other phones and nowhere near 40% overall.
I stopped watching after he stated that Apples computer sells are stronger then others. The fact is that they are slipping in sell of computers, especially lap tops from 4th to 5th in the US. http://www.electronista.com/articles/09/07/15/idc.prelim.q2.2009/. Some would say this is because Apple doesn't sell a netbook but consumers in this economy seem to be turning to cheaper manufactures that are providing a equally functioning product that is sometimes a third of the price.
I watched the mad money clip and it began to piss me off so I stopped watching. The Jon Stewart interview was hilarious though. It really put Cramer in perspective for me. Thanks for Including that in the post :)
Just goes to show you that if you're going to run a forum, you MUST be particularly cautious about EVERYTHING you say.
When it comes to technology sites EVERYONE will hold on tight to EVERYTHING you say.
That said, I visit all the Pre forums and Precentral.net is by far the most informative, ummm... just not with polls - LOL
Most of the "investment experts" on tv are nothing more than speculative idiots, making their money off of the salary they get from the show, and maybe by manipulationg the prices of the stocks that they hype or pan on their show. If you are the average person, and want to know what to do with your maney, listen to Dave Ramsey.
Too bad we can't call out Cramer on his show. Any bets on wheteher he has the backbone to take that call on the air?