Hey Jim Cramer, Let Us Google That For You 35
So this Analyst Palm Pre Return Rate story is refusing to die. To get you caught up quickly - we had a poll here at PreCentral.net in our forums asking users whether or not they'd had to return their Pre. 40% (at the time) had. A financial analyst included said number in a report and pointed out that it wasn't exactly scientific - a fact our members understand implicitly. That fact got lost in the blogosphere shuffle and suddenly people are saying that the Pre has an unusually high return rate.
The latest financial analyst to repeat this number: Jim Cramer of CNBC - who cited the number but not the source. Listen, Jim, we're not going to go all Jon Stewart on you here, but it seems like some simple research might have helped you with your segment. Here, let us Google "Palm Pre Return Rate" for you. The number one story, Wired pointing out that the Pre's return rates aren't out of the norm1. The number two story, our very own post on the topic (you know, the source of the poll). Heck, if you bothered to check out the second poll on that story which we cheekily posted, you'll find that the return rate listed there was 30%. You'll also find that it was an internet poll at a site with a large number of picky power users who demand perfection from their Pre. That 30% number truly is unacceptable for our users, but whether or not it's indicative of the overall return rate is an open question.
Look, we plum don't know what the return rate of the Pre is. What we do know is that context is important and every time a bit of context gets stripped away from a controversial issue like this, it causes confusion. When the end of that chain of confusion is advice on how people should invest their money, well, we get a little salty about how that context got stripped out. When it comes to people's retirement, we'd like to think that analysts have a responsibility to do simple things like a 2 minute Google search-and-read first.
But since this whole fiasco started in our forums, we'll end it there: head on over to our thread on your Mad Money segment. Oh, what the heck, we can't resist one more poll. You know which option we think is the right one:
Thanks to Goyena for the video link!



















35 Comments
Jim Cramer is a hack. I assume the clip you linked is the one where he gets his ass handed to him by Jon Stewart on TDS. His main concern is ratings, not accuracy.
The "apple" doesn't fall far from the tree. I think we found Scott Moritz's mentor. Maybe Cramer is the one getting iphone service for 60/month.
I can see Scott and Jimbo surveying people at the Firestone store reporting on the high number of people that have worn out their tires in the last six months. Hardhitting "journalism" I tell yah, and very "analytical". In any other profession, this would be enforceable malpractice.
.... its amazing that it has gotten this far
Whats MORE amazing is that the so called 'facts' that were pulled to use against Palm are opinions/polls from a site that is fundamentally dedicated to Palm and its prosperity.
Its just sad, really, when power users and cell phone/palm junkies can't just talk shop anymore without it leaking into facets of life that include people that DO NOT UNDERSTAND (Analysts/Jim Cramer/All the other people that are so obsessed with Apple's dominance that they will do anything to see Palm fail).
/sigh
According to a leading internet poll, the trend of citing an internet poll, discounting it for its unreliability and then using this poll as a basis for giving investment or electoral decisions, is a growing problem among bloggers and forums readers polled.
Ever heard of sampling error, pundits? That's another good subject to google: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/internet_polls/
P.S. Stop being a Google-fanboy, Dieter. Cramer can google this in Bing, or google it in Yahoo if he wants. Sheesh.
You can't google on Bing or Yahoo... that's just wrong...
if that chick can bing on Pre, you can google on bing. ;-)
"Googling in Bing" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0MKdjG1F_c
IMO, Cramer is right & he is wrong--at the same time. As an investment, PALM stock has gone from about $2/sh to $14/sh. That is like APPLE going from $150/sh to over $1000/sh. This has been a tremendous run up in the PALM stock & I agree w/Cramer that some if not a majority of the gains should be taken off the table. Until Palm's Web OS is actually used in other products or the Pre is offered by other companies (Verizon, ATT, internationally, etc), there is just not that much room for continued growth.
I think Cramer is wrong in that he obviously hasn't handled a Pre much less own or really use one & is basing his commentary on hearsay vs actual statistics. This is not a knock on Apple. I have a Mac Book Pro & an iPod among my tech toys & they are good products, but I don't think Cramer should be spreading hearsay statistics w/o getting the CEO of Palm or Sprint up for an interview.
Cramer is damn near insane if you ask me lol,
But your second poll actually shows a return rate of about 40%.
1733 Pre's fine, never returned
496 Pre's returned once
262 Pre's returned more than once, lets say those multiple exchanges were only 2 Pre's each even those many claim more returns than that. So under that catagory theres really atleast 524 Pre's returned.
So thats 2491 total Pre's in that poll with 1020 returned, which i believe is about 40% not 30%. Your poll was getting a % of people not the actual phone returns.
and why you have a I don't have a pre to even mess up the numbers worse, you were trying to get was just stupid.
Lost some respect for him b/c of this whole rant. He obviously doesn't know much about technology, and for the record, I am not an Apple hater myself b/c I own an iPod and a Macbook too, and I love their stuff. I just think that everyone is underestimating the Pre, and those who do have never read or seen what makes it different from the rest.
Oh well, by now we are all used to people talking crap about the Palm Pre.. It's just a fact of life now.
oy, this guy is a douche. I agree with "ananymous" up there that he is basing this all of hearsay, and is comparing two companies that are not in the same stages. Instead of trying to destroy Palms stock, why is he not saying that the OS has a ton of potential and once exclusivity at Sprint is gone, the stock could rise again. The phone has been released ONLY in the US under one of the lowest rated carriers here. Apple is on AT&T which is rated one of the highest. He said it himself, it's like comparing real apples to fake. I guess he's right in that maybe Apple is the better choice at this moment and time, but will that be the case in the future? Apple is going to lose its steam also when people jump ship, realize it's not ALL THAT AMAZING (not to mention very unbusiness friendly) and shoot back to what they are accustomed to or is a better option.
That guy is SUCH a douchebag. I wanted to smack him when he started talking. He tries to put a comical spin on his presentation, but when in reality he looks like a straight ASS.
Isn't Jim Cramer the guy who promoted Lenny Dykstra as a great investment advisor?
Hey, past non-performance is no guarantee of future non-performance.
wow, The whiny b*tches on this forum are actually now going to affect the stock price and success of the product they claim to love... congrats guys.
The poll in the forum is not scientific, and even blatantly UNscientific; that's for sure.
First, polls created by users tend to be flawed and poorly worded.
Second, people may communicate agreement or disagreement with their vote, whether the vote is accurate or not. For example, a person who dislikes the Pre could cast the most negative vote possible, even though that person never owned a Pre.
Third, people tend to flock to message boards to voice frustration, while people who are satisfied tend to remain silent. That is, the poll not based on a random subset of the population, but is based on a predictable subset of a community of users who are more likely to voice frustration. For example, if I see a thread about the oreo effect, I tend to skip it whether it is a poll or not, because I never had the oreo effect and I am not interested in discussing that topic. If the thread is a poll, you won't get my vote.
Also, the poll in this article should have been worded differently. The choices should be "competent financial analyst" and "reactionary goober who should do a little research before opening his big mouth." Then, when the poll turns out the way it did, someone could write an article about how reasearch shows that 97% of people in the world think that Jim Cramer is an incompetent financial analyst who is a reactionary goober who should do a little research before opening his big mouth.
I am not surprised by the story, mainly because the frenzy that the forum went into when the Palm Pre was released. The Palm Pre is a vast improvement over the Treos, but the posts about the phone on the forums in the first two weeks of its release were incredibly negative. I for one don't know why that was the case, I love the Pre. I have had no problems with the phone at all. What can I complain about? The phone has been updated by Palm at least three times since its release, and with the updates it continues to get better. The Pre is a great phone, I just wish the forums would stop being so incredibly negative.
The Pre is not a "vaste improvement" and is a considerable downgrade step backwards from Treos if one looks at simple metrics like call quality, reception, hardware build quality, and the very big issue of integration with corporate and enterprise environments.
A lot of Pres were probably forced by corporate IT to be returned, Additional Pres woudl have been returned by people who live in marginal Sprint areas given the Pre is substandard to many Sprint phones on reception. Those would be permanent returns.
A lot of Pres have manufacture defect. The first two I got hard screen defects int eh lower part of the screen out of the box, which points to much worse than normal quality control.
The forums are not "negative" three are a lot of inherent negatives to the Pre. Some people overemphasize them and some people are fanboys and refuse to understand that there are in fact conquerable problems which hopefully will be addressed in the Pre II.
Jash, you seem unimformed. The Pre is a giant step backwards from the Treo platform, but holds great potential. For general users, the Treo may not have been such a big deal. But for people that know what they're doing with mobile electronics, Treo may be unapproachable in execution.
And the negative press centered over two things. Physical build, which was not a big surprise considering the innovative design complete with moving parts.
And battery life, rightfully so. Improved software for power management and informed user dilligence will lessen this problem over time.
The negative treatment is earned. Palm didn't respect the quality points that created their following. They earned the licks they're getting.
So I tried to make the jump to Pre and went through 3 devices (which ironically were all fine) confirming that while my office is in a Sprint coverage area, its walls are apparently made out of CDMA kryptonite (AT&T GSM gets through no problem but Sprint and Verizon stop at the door). So my return rate was 100%. However, when I asked the guy at the Sprint store about Pre returns, he said the rate was about 15% and that 15% was the normal return rate for all of their smartphones.
Its all anecdotal unless someone actually publishes real data, but it sure seems to me that the Pre return rates are pretty consistent with other phones and nowhere near 40% overall.
I stopped watching after he stated that Apples computer sells are stronger then others. The fact is that they are slipping in sell of computers, especially lap tops from 4th to 5th in the US. http://www.electronista.com/articles/09/07/15/idc.prelim.q2.2009/. Some would say this is because Apple doesn't sell a netbook but consumers in this economy seem to be turning to cheaper manufactures that are providing a equally functioning product that is sometimes a third of the price.
I watched the mad money clip and it began to piss me off so I stopped watching. The Jon Stewart interview was hilarious though. It really put Cramer in perspective for me. Thanks for Including that in the post :)
Fix your links!!!
I don't know how anyone can say that the Pre isn't a vast improvement over the Treo line. I had a 700p that I loved, but it certainly wasn't very sleek or svelte. It was rugged and was built like a tank, but until it got sorted, it crashed repeatedly. My Pre has crashed one time, on June 6th, the day it came out, and hasn't crashed since. The Pre is far superior to the 700p in all respects. It certainly isn't a downgrade, that's for sure.
I am no Pre fanboy, and recognize that it does have some flaws. Many of those flaws have been addressed, or our being addressed by the updates (emoticons for one). At the rate Palm is updating the phone, I am confident that all the issues that have been pointed with the Pre will be rectified.
Cramer is an ok stock picker for some things but not others, specifically, video games and consumer products that are not no brainers like say apple.
i just bought a palm. getting delivered today but if Cramer was right in his fact's he'd be correct to sell the stock after a large runup.
The problem is his facts are by no means well facts or even verified. Nor is his opinion on the cell market well thought out. Base simply on the fact that there is truly room for many players in the smartphone space since most people still have no smart phones. Even today. Samsung sells more phones then anyone, Not apple. but his opinions on the stock are not based on facts but speculation.
sent this to Dieter now there's a report that Palm is doing fine.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10552563/1/tech-rumor-of-the-day-p...
hilariously it's on thestreet.com, Cramer's own site.
Just goes to show you that if you're going to run a forum, you MUST be particularly cautious about EVERYTHING you say.
When it comes to technology sites EVERYONE will hold on tight to EVERYTHING you say.
That said, I visit all the Pre forums and Precentral.net is by far the most informative, ummm... just not with polls - LOL
This article is from an interview directly w/Sprint CEO:
http://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/goto/evaluate/news/basicNewsStor...
These are just a couple of comments for those that won't read the entire article:
-The top executive of the No. 3 U.S. mobile service said the high-profile Pre's June launch went very well, but initial supply constraints made it harder to declare Pre a big success yet.
-Hesse said in response to a question that Sprint (S), the exclusive U.S. provider for Pre, has NOT SEEN A LOT OF RETURNS of the device from customers who bought it.
From the horse's mouth.
Forwarding to the Daily Show.....now :)
Proof is in the stock. Went from a low of 13.62 today to close at 14.47.. What a tool
Cramer is an idiot. But people who don't do any research believe him.
He is wrong many, many more times than he is right, and has been that way for many many year.
He speaks with authority, but has none. If you believe what he says, you are a fool.
Jim Cramer has been a joke since john stewart interviewed him and ripped him a new one.
If you haven't already, you should watch Jon Stewart's interview of Jim Cramer in March 2009. Interestingly, the interview includes footage from 2006 of Cramer explaining how to manipulate stocks (specifically: Apple's) and hedge funds to make profits and steal peoples' retirement savings. Hmm... what do you suppose the point of his "buy buy Apple" and "sell sell Palm" spiel is today??
Three parts:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-12-2009/jim-cramer-extended-...
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-12-2009/jim-cramer-extended-...
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-12-2009/jim-cramer-extended-...
Doh! I read the whole article at the top, watched the interview again, then forgot it was already linked to! :P Sorry...
Most of the "investment experts" on tv are nothing more than speculative idiots, making their money off of the salary they get from the show, and maybe by manipulationg the prices of the stocks that they hype or pan on their show. If you are the average person, and want to know what to do with your maney, listen to Dave Ramsey.
Too bad we can't call out Cramer on his show. Any bets on wheteher he has the backbone to take that call on the air?
I think something people are missing about Cramer is that he has an AGENDA. He's not an idiot. He uses real and phony numbers, information and misinformation to accomplish goals for the people who pay him above and under the table to talk up or down particular stocks, which those people stand to make a profit on.
I hope Cramer quotes the poll in this post during his next segment. It is, you know, highly representative of the general population's sentiments ;).