Palm Pre Return Rate Now Pegged at 2% - 3% (Dueling Analysts) 24
Not a day since we took Jim Cramer to task for citing the 40% return rate number, Scott Moritz at Cramer's own publication, The Street, contradicts Cramer with numbers of his own. He cites RBC Analyst Mike Abramsky, who suggest that "the return rate has been low, running between 2% and 3%."
Abramsky also estimates sales at 350,000. Abransky's numbers come from a survey of around two dozen Sprint stores.
Both the sales numbers and the return rates have been hot topics of late and frankly, it would be pretty nice to see some clearer guidance from Palm so we can stop playing dueling analysts. At this point, we're much more interested in sales number than return rates -- if only because the likelihood that we'll ever get a clear answer on the latter is basically nil.
Thanks to blackmagic01 for the tip!
24 Comments
Actual return rates for the Pre may be released when Sprint delivers its quarterly report:
http://tinyurl.com/lto3k4
Lawrence
That's a good link!
Thanks for the info on what Hesse (Sprint CEO) said.
"There have been shortages of the device," Hesse said. Realistically, he said, Sprint won't know if it is a hit for three or four months. "It's too early to tell."
Hesse also said that Palm Pre returns aren't as high as people think.
"There's things all over people are speculating," Hesse said. "Most of the speculation I read is wrong."
Good point--I had to EXCHANGE mine for another one that worked right. RETURN implies to get rid of it!
I cannot believe that the words of some moron analyst citing as his data the results of an informal poll on a web forum managed to skew Palm's stock price so much. Completely ridiculous.
Yeah and we wonder why the economy is in such a mess. The Value of anything is based on what the mob feels it's worth and sadly the mob believes everything it's told. Add in the fact that the news entertainment providers are more about the scoop than the facts and no longer fact check anything. Oh and my favorite, there seems to be a lot of experts out there with no expertize or track record. It's all whispered tips at the track.
You're welcome Dieter. Thought it people would be interested in the article from another analyst with an opposing view.
Cramer clearly says returns in his Mad Money piece and as one person put it above and exchange is different then a return. And i believe it is much worse on the bottom line.
I think another point that needs to be made is there are often good products but bad stocks. For example,Toll Brothers may make great homes but it may be a bad stock since there are fewer people buying newly built homes today. The price of the stock may outrace it's projected earnings by an unacceptable multiple. In that case it's overvalued and it's probably correct to say "sell it" it possibly to rebuy at a better value. But my issue is his piece is to say the stock is overvalued because, the earnings will be bad. And his foundation for bad earnings is a lot of questionable "evidence" that the underlying product is bad. Everyone knows there are some build issues and exchange issues. But his analysis seems overly speculative.
i don't know what the truth is. In reality we'll know when they issue their earnings. Keep in mind Apple was down and dogged for two days before they blew away analysts and honestly. did anyone really think apple wasn't going to sell a butt load of phones and have a good quarter? Nobody with any understanding.
another quote from sprint CEO today "You won't know if we have a real hit on our hands until its been out three months, four months, five months ... It's too early to tell," Hesse told the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference. "We're just getting it rolled out in decent quantities for direct distribution."
Hesse said in response to a question that Sprint, the exclusive U.S. provider for Pre, has not seen a lot of returns of the device from customers who bought it."
Oh by the way. Palm stock was down over 2% when i sent that to you. It's up 1.69% now on more positive news about the Pre. The stock market is crazy and often irrational.
2-3percent????? I gotta call bullsh1t on that one.
Speaking strictly for myself, I have had 2 exchanges (using Pre #3) and 0 returns.
I believe the EXCHANGE rate for the Pre is high (at least by my standards) and the RETURN rate may be normal.
i think you make a very good point. i can tell you my friends with one haven't considered exchanging it. actually like it a lot, and it never occured to him to check for gaps in his slider. he said if he had seen it he wouldn't have thought much of it.
i had one dead pixel on my desktop monitor. it pissed me off for months. Worse i only knew what a dead pixel was because i read it in a review when looking for monitors. until then i didn't even know to look for them. funny it's still there and i never actually notice it anymore.
THANK YOU DIETER!!! And thank you, too, blackmagic. I was too busy today for more follow-up. You two made my day when I got home and read this. That and the fact the shorts had to run for cover after the morning's initial dip. :D
Well here's what's sad. I actually like Cramer. I've read one of his books and it's actually full of sound investment advice (that don't make him not a blowhard fool on his show though). One of which is "buy and homework." The homework being the important part. He advises not to take his word for it but to go home and wait and do your own homework before you buy or sell. So I did my own homework. Look he could be right in the end but i'm not for wildly unverifiable speculation. Analysts are often guessing but sometimes it's not completely educated. Regardless i don't expect the negativity to stop until there are actual earnings.
FYI: I didn't actually have a Pre until three hours ago. I just got it and it's pretty damn Awesome.
Lots of "exchanges" for sure...