Strong competitors to Pre lurking around the corner 22
It's been over a week since the Palm Pre was released into the world and Apple announced the iPhone 3G S, which will start shipping this week. Add in the iPhone 3.0 update due any minute now (check out the excellent iPhone 3.0 overview at TiPb) and the Pre really has its work cut out for it.
Not standing on the sidelines is Research in Motion, with the unveiling of it's BlackBerry Tour 9630 smartphone. So far, the guestimate of the number of Palm Pre smartphones sold has bounced around.
As we've already noted here and also in a Reuters story by Franklin Paul, current estimates on Pre sales hover around 100,000. "Most analysts, citing their own data, said the company shipped some 50,000 units for the weekend of the Pre's debut on June 6. Another 50,000 units followed soon after." The story also quoted Pacific Crest Securities analyst James Faucette:
"We believe that between 90,000 units and 100,000 units were sold in the first week," he said. "Given the high number of people still on waiting lists ... the company appears to be on track to exceed our previous August quarter unit shipment estimate of 500,000."
David Eller, analyst at JRPG, a boutique securities firm, said Palm sold 84,000 Pre phones in the first weekend, with some 35 percent going to new customers for Sprint. We should get a better read when Palm announces earnings a week from Thursday (Q4FY09 Results 06/25/2009 1:30 PM PT).
Palm's opening weekend kind of reminds me of box office comparisons. The Pre opened strongly, but with the new iPhone opening this weekend and the BlackBerry Tour coming soon (and the Storm 2 also on the way), not to mention the Nokia phones that sell absurdly well outside the US, how long can the Pre hold onto mindshare?
The constraint in supply is troublesome. During a trip to my local Best Buy this weekend, when I asked how long the wait list was for the Pre, I was laughed at. And when I spoke to Sprint, I was given a very vague answer about supply which left me feeling that I wouldn't see one until mid to late July. IMHO, the next allotment of the Palm Pre needs to get here soon before the momentum of its opening is lost.
Satchel Paige's famous quote, "Don't look back, someone may be gaining on you," fits here. Any daylight/gap that Palm may have can be closed quickly by competitors with more resources and a larger installed customer base.
By the way, Paul noted that shares of Palm climbed on Tuesday to their highest level since October 2007, rising 3.2 percent in afternoon trade to close at $14.57, after hitting a session high of $15.25.
22 Comments
Palm can't afford to wait around just now - they need to be actively working on new updates to the pre's webOS. These updates need to add a lot of the missing features (managing pictures on the phone, cut&paste from non-text fields, saving pictures from a website) but more importantly add new features that will make the Pre stand out against the competition in the news.
Palm should also push out the Pixie to get competition on other phone's "home networks" as well.
Finally, Palm really needs to hurry up and release the SDK so that 3rd-party aps can be developed! They also should stand behind the developer/hacker communities as that is where the Pre will shine.
"importantly add new features that will make the Pre stand out against the competition in the news"
from what I read, palm should add some old features, that every single phone has, but not the pre. simple things like eg. different ring tones for different actions (alarm, sms, etc). and much more of that catagory.
I think Palm will likely continue to gain momentum for one main reason. They knowingly launched the phone right before the iPhone3Gs was released. Considering that it was the third iteration of the iPhone, that makes no business sense, except if Palm has planned some major updates in the next few weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see Palm push some new functionality out to maintain or even increase the Pre's momentum.
gotta love competition. I was actually hoping for more from the new iphone to keep palm oh it's toes. all this competition is only good for us end users.
I sure hope that I can pick up a new Pre at my Sprint store...cmon supply!
Too many 'waiting lists' and not enough phones to meet the demand at a time when competition will skyrocket. Sprint will lose if they don't stock these phones quickly.
I was at our local Sprint store this past Friday (6/12/09) chatting with one of the sales guys. When I asked how many Pre's they had sold, looked in the computer system and told me 98 - and then he offered, that Sprint had sold 70,000 total. Don't know if this was Sprint stores only, or if it was the grand total.
I guess it never hurts to ask!!
I just managed to pick one up...
Agreed competiton for palm right now is def a good thing, lets see them push out some new things to us to keep the momenteum rolling!
They have been working hard so they have to be prepared for the competiton, mainly apple and blackberry
Annie, that picture is hilarious! Very apropos, you nailed it! :-D
That picture is awesome. lol.
The waiting list must be going down I went to the sprint store last friday in Buena Park, CA and put my name on the waiting list about 7:30 pm and then on Monday morning at 10:30 am they said they had one fore me.. lets hope there coming in fast
Perhaps one issue that keeps the Palm from selling more Pre units is the Sprint stipulation of the 'Everything' plan. I can understand Sprint wanting to slowly phase out SERO customers, but I have a 'Free and Clear' family plan that fits my needs just right, and that includes unlimited data. I don't want to have to change that just for the Pre.
Perhaps if they lowered the cost of admission to plans that have unlimited data, they could garner more Pre sales, expand Palm's mindshare (amidst all the other competitors) and ultimately, more folks who would be willing to keep buying WebOS phones going forward.
If Sprint lowered prices for their everything plans, they'll be losing money as they're already subsidizing the PRE quite considerably: from $550 (I think) to $200.
Sorry if I wasn't clear: I didn't mean lower the cost of the plans themselves. I simply meant that they would not require the 'Everything Plan' to get the Pre -- as long as your individual plan had unlimited data, that would be sufficient.
Funny thing is, here in Chicago I've spoken with 3 different Sprint stores that have the Pre in stock. My wife asked what I wanted for Father's day and Palm Pre were the first words out of my mouth. She had no trouble finding one. And this was just last night.
I think it depends on the city and on the store in question. I've gotten the impression that the larger full-service stores get more than the smaller ones (the one near 3rd and La Cienega in Los Angeles said they were getting 20-30 per day). I also found it helped to call them to check as well. I was able to get mine on Monday, but only after I called and mentioned that I was on the waiting list (I hadn't been called yet).
I ordered mine online from pre.sprintshops.com and they were shipped out of a Sprint warehouse the next day after talking to them on the phone (credit check and the like). It was a 3 Pre family line plan. If they could ship out 3 Pre's the day after the order went into Sprint's system I find it hard to believe supply is really THAT hard to find.
All the stores in the Cleveland, Ohio area say there's a waiting list; they can't say when the phone will be available! I'm on 4 of these waiting lists. What's the hold-up?
Is the Pre REALLY short stocked? I live in Austin, a very tech-oriented city, and I was able to purchase a Pre the Saturday afternoon of launch. The Pre I got was acting up, so I returned it three days letter on Tuesday. The next day, Wednesday, I received a new one. Sure doesn't seem like a shortage to me...
Yeah, I know, I got mine exchanged on the first try today. Though in fairness they had just gotten their day's shipment in an hour prior.
I get the impression that outside the US the Pre doesn't have any "momentum" at all. It almost seems it doesn't get any attention. One of the reasons is the fact that the pre will be available in the september - december timeframe. During this period a lot of new devices will be released...therefore it's just one of many smartphones.