Talkin' Pre -- Week ending 14 August 26
Ouch! This was a pretty tough week for Palm. Somehow the company managed to survive the relentless slings and arrows to have their stock end the week just over $14. But man o' man did they get pummeled. So here's a quick run-through of some stories that dominated Palm's news cycle.
Morgan Joseph downgraded PALM stock to Sell on Thursday. At the beginning of the year, they went from HOLD to BUY. In April, they moved back to HOLD. And this week, it was "no mas!"
"...given our belief that Pre sales have slowed significantly. Our checks have shown that Pre sales have slowed to approximately 100,000 units in July, from approximately 200,000 in June, and we believe August shipments are tracking lower than July's"
Read more here.
More salt on the wounds... Eric Savitz of Tech Trader Daily piled on with a post that noted this downgrade and pointed to "a similarly bearish note" from Collins Stewart analyst Ashok Kumar.
And Scott Moritz, senior tech reporter for TheStreet.com pegged PALM as a loser for second quarter in this interview. Ouch! He did further his thoughts here. Wired.com's Gadget Lab piled on too with this post ("Palm Pre Lags iPhone in Satisfaction Survey") by Priya Ganapat
This so feels like Rocky getting pummeled. And it gets worse as Palm shoots itself in the foot with its privacy policy. CNBC's Jim Goldman had a field day with it while discussing a story that appeared in the Los Angeles Times. Our own Dieter talked about it here.
Financial Conference Highlights... There seemed to be a developers' bent to what was discussed at the Pacific Crest Technology Forum. Here's a excerpt captured by Dieter regarding getting apps on the Pre:
"It's the most frequent request we have on the Pre from consumers. A couple of things: it's the easiest to develop for. We've got functionality that other platforms don't have - multitasking + synergy + unobtrusive notifications. The developer experience is very important to use, we're spending a lot of time with developers. So it will take time, but early results are good."
Maybe Palm is moving slowly to "to make sure that developers have a great experience," but according to InfoWorld's Peter Wayner (post titled "Palm's Mojo SDK for the Pre mixes simplicity, rough edges"):
"The Mojo SDK doesn't have the word "beta" floating around it, even though it's much younger than many other products that still sport the label. I think it would be fair to apply it here. The general outline of the system is solid and usable, but there are numerous rough edges and dark, undocumented corners. These should be easy for Palm to fix with ample time and attention."
Speaking of ample time for fixes, PreThinking's Philip Lam reported:
"If you're an early Pre adapter like myself that nabbed one of the first batches of Palm Pres, then chances are you experienced it firsthand or have heard of some of the build quality issues surrounding the first shipments of Palm Pres. Although the particular Pre I got was one of the solid ones. Palm acted swiftly from the reports, and looks like Pres manufactured in July and up, fixes some of the issues. "
Let's close with some "happy thoughts."
In an email push I received this week from Amazon, the Palm Pre was #4 on its top Electronics Deals list...
Lastly, it looks like former Seinfeld writer, Peter Mehlman is "lovin" his Pre. The fact that Palm is sponsoring his "Narrow World of Sports" web series might have something to do with it. Our own Derek wrote about the series here.
That's a wrap!
26 Comments
oh no.
the biz figures would indicate that my first smartphone purchase is destined for a dead end.
too bad, becasue I am really liking my Pre. I cruise around the net, chekcing and sending email, checking UPS packages, my travel routes, tether to my laptop in a pinch. jot down notes and message google to make a calendar and google voice transcript myself to keep a record of what I need to do.
damn... and just less than 30 days ago (still within the return period) I didnt even realize all this stuff could be so consolidated onto one phone. n00b? perhaps. impressed? yep. gonna stick with it? yes. I might be new to smart phones, but I can tell when a good open platform is ripe for expansion and delivering satisfaction. this is it! The Pre seems to be insipring participation and that is a good thing.
But, in the end, I gotta go where the best, most successful and open features are going to be. That is where my phone/data dollars are going to take me.
still to early to tell i think..there seems to be this thing where everyone thinks the iphone is the only thing to have...but they forget what the iphone was like when it first launched..but in anycase if palm dies i move on to something else...i dont think they will though
Yep. That's Steve's RDF at its best. (RDF being "Reality Distortion Field" (Wikipedia) ;)
Apple is very close to crossing into "religious" territory with the fanatical zealot-ism exuded by the "Followers of the Fruit". I read a blog comment once where someone said Jobs could literally package dog feces calling it "iPoo" and the followers would fight saying how great it was. lol. Apple makes good even great products, but there ARE better ones out there. Jobs does not make the "tools of god" as the iClone masses would have you believe.
There's a good article by Adrian Kingsley-Hughes over a ZDNet about how some loyalist are turning from the "Church of the Bitten Fruit" to other pastures.
http://blogs.zdnet.com/hardware/?p=5123
At least they gave it a good try.
I think it's too early to be sure of Pre success or failure w/o real sales numbers and real earnings. But you say, "give it time." I think that is THE problem. Nobody is going to be willing to give a product time. Phones have a relatively short procuct cycle. The standard is already set by iphone and RIM. That is to compete there is already a standard that has to be met. it's audio, video, apps, style, form, ease of use with regard to the iphone. And to compete with RIM it's email, some apps, and easy to use business functionality and business security. If you want to be a long term success with those as the standards you're going to have to at the minimum meet them and often beat those standards since like a fighter fighting in his opponents home town, you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt.
Few people will, wait for Palm to get it's act together and release it's app store. Fair enough for people to say, "iphone didn't have an app store when it came out." But the reality is it does now, and the choice for a consumer isn't Palm Pre now and the iphone with no app store. It's palm pre now and the iphone with a robust app store. Bottom line palm should have had it's app store ready to go shortly after it's release and it's almost two months after and haven't seen a lot of positives. I like the pre but if you don't hear positives while, a competitor like iphone is running commercials everyday on every channel touting things a Pre doesn't have it's easy to see why investors and buyers would think the momentum is going with the competitors. When the unofficial homebrew community has more apps then the official store that doesn't make Palm look like they are exactly ahead of the game. I just think buyers and investors are not likely to just wait. I think Palm needs to be proactive. Keep having updates, which i haven't seen since the first one. And i can name tons of little things wrong with the phone that should be simple fixes. The app store thing is a biggie cause it's a revenue stream but they need to get off their ass on that one.
I want the Pre to go on Verizon. I think it will go crazy. If they support Sprint and Verizon, they will be rollin in the Benjamen's. That should help Palm, and the more they have, the better the updates for the Pre will be. And the app store will go crazy as well, as it already has.
Just remember ladies and gentleman, that we were also told to BUY Bear Stearns because it could never collapse, that RIM would be a failure, that Apple would declare bankruptcy in 1999, etc.
Adding carriers (both here and worldwide) should be a priority for Palm (app catalog should be 2nd) if they want the Pre to do well.
It is always hard to peg how accurate analysts are - I remember a lot of them saying netflix will die/etc because it was up against blockbuster
I look at my pre like one might look at a troubled 12 year old: I don't like who you are right now, but I see potential in you. I am going to overlook your shortcomings for now, and I'm going to wait to see how you develop. With a little bit of direction, I'm sure you can smooth out some of those rough edges. It's too bad that it looks like your parents (palm) are going to orphan you. But don't worry, if they do, I will take you in and help you where they couldn't. And if you don't turn into the smartphone that you should be, I'll just go back to my old trusty winmo.
Unfortunately for palm, I'm not sure all end users are going to be as patient as myself.
Be methodical in your approaches to your problems. But don't be slow. You don't have time to be slow.
Love my Pre. Gonna keep it. The media can suck it.
Maybe Palm should just dump the creepy chick in the ads and then they could just start over with better marketing. Those ads suck. The phone rocks!
Hopefully Verizon will be smart enough to let everyone buy a Pre regardless of which data plan they already have. If they do that, it'll sell like hot cakes.
"Palm, give your valued, and precious few Pre customers a chance to disable this feature, or just turn it off for them. Otherwise it might be real easy to keep track of all your Pre's: they'll be unsold, on store shelves, right where you left them."
that's true for me. I wont buy a pre, if palm does not change its policy of invading the privacy of the pre users. palm is evil. :)
Everyone says 'wait until Verizon' but no one fact checks this at all. Name ONE device on Verizon, that isnt locked down and crippled along with THEIR standards for UI? You cant. Also, VZW has stated they will not allow ANY app catalog of ANY kind on their phones other than theirs starting in 2010. Plus, their data speeds are very slow compared to Sprint along with call quality.
Im not an expert like these so called idiots (in the article) but Id say this stuff is all made up BS to move thier stocks.
OK, I'm not going to panic because I actually own 4 of these phones, and I understand them. I wonder how many of the analysts cited above either own one or have even used one long enough to understand what the phone does. That said, I am concerned because I understand the power of negative publicity and what it can do to an otherwise insane market place that doesn't take time to inform itself.
To me, the biggest concern I have is how any "failure" by Palm to make the Pre work will impact current owners. This is a unique phone that is tied up in the cloud. Are there any Palm-run servers that the phone needs in order to keep working (a la Palm Profile for backup, etc.)? An what happens if they walk away from the platform? Is my investment up in smoke in that case?