webOS projected to have just 1.4% market share in 2012 47
Wed, 14 Oct 2009 2:42 pm EDT 
A study recently completed by Gartner, Inc. predicts that in 2012 Palm’s webOS platform will have grabbed a mere 1.4% of the smartphone market with sales of 7.6 million. Gartner’s study holds that in three years annual global smartphone sales will top 525 million units (projected sales for 2009 are around 131 million smartphones). King of Gartner’s projected hill: Symbian, with 37.4% of the market, driven by 196.5 million devices shipped - though that is a drop from Symbian’s expected ~50% marketshare for 2009 (but still 20 million more units than 2009). The by-OS breakdown for 2012:
| OS | 2012 units | share |
| Symbian | 196.5 million | 37.4% |
| Android | 94.5 million | 18.0% |
| BlackBerry | 73.0 million | 13.9% |
| iPhone | 71.5 million | 13.6% |
| Windows Mobile | 47.7 million | 9.0% |
| Maemo | 23.5 million | 4.5% |
| Linux (general) | 11.0 million | 2.1 % |
| webOS | 7.6 million | 1.4% |
We aren’t too keen on these numbers. We can’t quite put our finger on why, but we have a feeling that the numbers for Android, iPhone, and webOS are too low, and that Symbian is frankly too high. And Maemo, which is currently only available on the N900 and will likely only be on N and E-series Nokia devices, garnering 23.5 million in sales in three years? We’re not analysts of any variety, but we really have to question the picture that Gartner is trying to paint of the future of the smartphone market - it just doesn’t mesh with the emerging trends that we are seeing.
Gartner also takes a bold stand on the growth of smartphones, which is generally agreed to be explosive in nature. While most research firms are predicting that sales in the 2012 timeframe will be up around 300-400 million, Gartner is predicting over 500 million. As with the opinions of stock analysts, the “research studies” of firms like Gartner should be taken with a few grains of salt. If you don’t believe me, consider that in 2006 alone Gartner predicted that Vista would be the last Windows OS release, proclaimed that Apple should quit making hardware and license Mac OS X, and determined that 2007 would mark the zenith of blogging.
Then again, the world is going to end in 2012, so what does it matter?
Thanks to Mike for the tip!
47 Comments
It's so easy to make these projections. It's even easier to retract when they don't come up.
My projection is WebOS 50% by 2013.
Haha, exactly. Why stop at 50%? Let's roll with 99% until proven otherwise.
These similar to the analysts that said you shouldn't buy Palm stock. Then should. Then shouldn't. Then should?
Or the ones that made the incorrectly low sales estimates for the Pre?
Or the ones that have no idea what other devices Palm has up their sleeves before 2012?
Yep. OK.
riiight.. those numbers are completely bogus.. i believe windows will hold much more than that... i have more faith in palms webos as well
Unless Windows Mobile 7 is way better, I don't see Windows Mobile even reaching that. It has been a terrible platform in comparison to others for years.
But there are a lot of professional apps that are made for the windows mobile operating system, and those generally don't get updated often enough for me to believe that they'll be supporting all these other new platforms anytime soon. So really as long as 6.5 and 7 offer enough added usability to even just keep one step behind the competition to where it's not the end of the world, they might maintain their current share because of this leg up.
people say the same about their desktop os but they have a lot of customer's already and have the power to get themselves on carriers not to mention they are still a useful if cumbersome solution for enterprise as tons of phone users are business oriented and social networking is not their primary concern
These numbers seem very skewed. That is quite the prediction. I remember when the pundits predicted the iPhone would never succeed. Look how much of the market share they have now. Where do they get these numbers? Perhaps these statements are meant to attempt to drive the numbers in a direction by consumers who are easily swayed.
Hard to believe Gartner.
I am not sure they are credible anymore.
They might be right about WebOS, but MAEMO shipping 23 millions ? They must be drinking some Finnish Vodka courtesy Nokia.
And whats up with that iPhone ? I bet iPhone will take Android spot if it gets unlocked from exclusivity deals across the world.
If android keeps coming out with UI and speed improvements as they have been lately, I can see it giving the iPhone a good run for its money, even if it does lose GSM exclusivity. Palm has a much harder uphill race for now.
And don't forget all the Chinese phones trickling out with Android preloaded (the real Android ones, not the ones with WM or some homebrew OS made to look like Android)
I agree, especially regarding Maemo. It is a nice little Linux distro and I have enjoyed playing with it on my N800. However, unless Nokia plans to retire Symbian on an entire line of phones overnight, I do not see how they could reach 23 million.
Gartner should not overlook the fact that Palm will be selling multiple devices on multiple carriers. No where near as many as Nokia, but certainly as many models as iPhone and possibly Blackberry. I realize this does not guarantee the same number of sales, though.
I know this is gonna work not for the phone. The phone is nice, but not OMG! OMG! But i gota admit the WEbos and how they have developers in mind is WOW WOW!
They always say symbian is biggest, yet i rarely see people with a nokia smartphone. maybe as they shove s60 on so many dumbphones?
all i see is iphones and blackberry. never seen another treo pro in the wild (my phone) - in fact everyone who's seen it thinks it's a blackberry. heh.
internationally Nokia sells more phones than any company.. im pretty sure that apple and RIM have less than 10% of the smartphone market ( read it about a month ago).. travel to any other country and you will see a lot of Nokia phones
Actually i believe Samsung leads the world in total handset sales. And honestly Motorola still sells a lot of phones. And Motorola isn't exactly a great success story right now.
but yeah in global smart phones nokia has share. i belle around 43%. but the problem is Nokia's share has been falling for two years. And RIm and apple's share of the global smartphone market has nearly doubled. So Nokia in terms of smartphones is going in the wrong direction.
Something else nobody has mentioned is Nokia projected a growth in total market share earlier this year but in July they had to revise that and say nevermind, "we will have no growth from our percentage last year." That's not an exact quote but but you get the point. With Android providing competion, and Rimm, and Apple and others Nokia is going in the wrong direction even globally. It's a concern for them. And i think they announce earnings soon and from the headlines, they aren't expected to be good.
gartner microsoft, usually, and that's all i need to know. just follow the money.
sketchy.
nokia sells pretty much zero smart phones in the U.S. and is doing poorly as a company. this share percentage surely doesn't line up with most industry projections.
If apple is not exclusive in 2012 it share will likely increase as it will be on more carriers.
as for Palm personally i think WebOS needs to be licensed if it really want's market share. I posed the question in the palmcast but they didn't address it.
You in the desktop space microsoft got market share by licensing software and letting others worry about hardware. Apple didn't apple lost that battle. Apple did the os and hardware for the ipod and won. But that is small tech and it's a device designed to basically do one thing, play music. But look at android now. it's not number one but it's taking the microsoft desktop model. focus on software let others do hardware. And it's now got about 5 devices on several carriers and it's getting momentum and market share. One reason windows 6.5 still has carriers willing to put it on a device even though in many areas it's clearly behind the times is it has over time and through licensing establish a nice chunk of market share of loyal companies willing to wait till Windows 7 comes out. So licensing would even give Web OS some slack in the lean years. Web OS should do the same cause phone os's are more like desktop os's that need do do multiple things and have applications then it is like a single purpose device like an ipod music player.
Palm should license Web OS, get it on multiple platforms and let others worry about the hardware. it gets rid of it's burden to have hardware tech support worry about returns and quality issues.
What are the numbers now?
this one's pretty good, but i think gartner's been involved in previous admob findings earlier as well so again the numbers are probably tweaked in one way or another.
http://metrics.admob.com/
http://brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2009/09/30/admob-the-iphones...
My projection is that WebOS will hit 15% by late 2010 to early 2011. Just watch! its pickin up speed as it is right now. WebOS has a lot of potential. Just gotta do the marketing right and keep the customers satisfied. BOOM! easy as that! lol
60 million devices by late 2010? I doubt that Palm's suppliers could ramp up to produce that amount, even if demand was there.
lets face it these are predictions, and its taking the current trend, if webos becomes big and I trully believe it will because besides the iphone its the simples new operating system so as long as palm makes quality items I personally believe it will look allot different then this prediction.
Yes, I think WebOS would have looked a lot better on this chart if not for the hardware issues with the Pre. I personally think it's the best and most intuitive smartphone OS, but the user base is hurting because of slider, screen, and keyboard problems. That just translates into less developer support, which translates into even fewer sales - it's a self perpetuating cycle here, so they need to get on their game quickly.
Taking out WiFi from the Pixi won't help much either, but it does give another option I guess. But that is the one thing that will keep me from getting it, despite the fact that I think the keyboard will be much more comfortable than the Pre's. As much as I enjoy WebOS, I may go android next year when I'm eligible for an upgrade if they don't put something in between the two.
BUNK! If WebOS was two years old and fully rolled out, and doing just ok, then I might agree.
Symbian - huge in Europe and nowhere else. These numbers aren't even close to right. Both Symbian and WinMo will be much smaller by then, if WinMo is even still an active product. Blackberry's market share will also be in decline through a combination of crap product and lack of mindshare. Nobody is going to want a Blackberry in 2011 between the lack of sexiness, the difficulty in setting it up in workplace situations, and the fact that I hear more and more people with Blackberries who say they HATE their phone.
Probably Android #1 (just because of the sheer volume of devices), iPhone #2, Blackberry #3 (maybe), and webOS #4. I speak only in terms of US market share, so factor in the rest of the world holding on to boring Symbian phones for 4 years, I guess.
I have to say that those numbers look downright "stupid". I don't know who at Gartner is doing this analysis, but they can't be up on the trends. Symbian has a large part of the market because of Nokia being so strong in Europe. We all know that Symbian is a struggling platform and there were even rumors that Nokia was looking to buy Palm because it needs a massiver overhaulf of its OS. iPhone will certainly continue to grow and none of the Nokia devices can compete with it. WM...needs v7 to be a game changer and incorporate some gaming elements like running X-Box on it or it's over..and they will start declining. I actually think that RIM is struggling to find a way to keep its devices relevant because its core services of basic Outlook has serious competition without the BES cost and the devices can't seem to compete with the social side of any of the other devices despite the Storm 2 et al. If RIM isn't careful and carve out a new niche (beyond just security), others will supplant it. Android will continue to surge. It's got a strong OS and a large volume of handset makers, which will certainly lead to large market penetration. They just need to keep being innovative and "open" and they will not become WM. (It's a shame really because there's no good reason that Microsoft did not leap ahead with WM and now Android will certainly take its place.) Palm needs a real marketing lift & push with a significant backing by some real distributors and one or two more compelling elements and I think they can really push past a few of the competitors. And Maemo?...please...it's not even worth a comment. To make these comments about the growth of WebOS only 3 -4 months after it launched is again just plain stupid! What's not illustrated here is current units out there and growth models. This chart is only referring to marketshare based on existing handsets at the time...so if I buy a symbian device today and have it 3 years from now, I'm still included as part of Symbian marketshare; but it doesn't say that I'm really not happy with it and will buy something else as soon as I can. There are plenty of people who still keep their handsets for years or until it breaks no matter how unhappy they are with it.
my prediction is that windows is gonna take over with their windows phones.. in the future the top 4 mobile os' will be: windows, android, apple, webos. its simple.. we already see how google is taking over with android and their services.. google services work 100 times better on android than any other platform.. and everyone uses google services on the cpu so why not have the same functionality on a mobile device.
microsoft is already ahead with in the business and enterprise aspect.. everyone uses the office suite (word, excel, powerpoint etc). so of course these services will work best on a wm phone, therefore businesses, student, duds, and anyone who uses microsoft word may be prone to getting one of their phones.
apple will always have its fanboy fanbase and the media industry.. so that's a large amount of people who will stick with them.
and webos is just cool.. it will attract the forever growing linux fanbase as well as web design developers who already know html/scripts.. as long as they continue to think outside the box they will grow.. i mean.. people complain about the pre's hardware, but when have you ever seen a phone designed as slick as this.. all they need to do is make it metal! lol.. and the interface is slick and beautiful..
i do agree that webos needs to be put on other devices outside of palms as well..
another major aspect is advertising.. without good advertising you're just a diamond covered by the dirt that is others advertising..
Nokia is huge outside America folks. You should realize that there are 2.5Billion people just in two countries(India+China). That's almost 10 times the US population. Even if their adoption is 10 times less than here, they are a significant force.
Dont get me wrong. I don't quite see the growth path for Nokia in Developed economies either. Just giving a wider perspective for those who have never traveled in Kilometers!
My bet. Nokia will buy Palm. Think about that.
I love the Pre but if I didn't have I would have the Iphone.
The way I see it, webOS is a great OS, needs some tweaking and optimization, but we're only 4 months in, so I'll give it a little more time. When this thing starts to blossom, it is going to have to appeal to EVERYONE to begin gaining marketshare. Let the iPhones/Pod have all the "cool gaming machine" title, I don't really need them. Optimize this OS for the person on the go, that needs to stay connected, and also be secure and easy to use for the professional on the go. The multitasking capabilities will make working on the go a breeze. We just need professional apps, like being able to create and edit word docs, and Excel and some others.... medical apps for those doctors, etc.
With the backing of this Great homebrew community, there won't be any stops to getting more and more tweaks and customizations for this OS. While it may take Palm a while to make it standard on their devices, I'm sure all of our whining will push them to the edge sooner or later for just about everything we want out of this OS.
YES, this is somewhat hopeful dreaming, but it's not impossible. Ppl (naysayers, competitors) used to say the Pre didn't have apps... but those are slowly picking up steam (DEFFFF need to fix this limitation though), but what's next?? They just need to add some more functionality, then build on top of what we have. I have that hope, and I know Palm will be smart enough to make the right moves... That's my bet, and I'm ALL IN.
OK OK I am REALLY REALLY confused.
Where is the big press about this Tsunami called Andriod!?
I mean if a platform is going to go from near zero to 18% in less than three years you would expect to have some indication of it and I haven't seen any. Isn't this all a bit suss??
Also if you look at other Gartner analysis from this year they state Andriod will have issues getting market penetration.
I will tell you what I have seen in our company, a tripling of iPhones in 1 year and a slight increase in windows mobile phones.
Not a sign of Android!
What will WebOS do ? No idea but I suspect 3-5% is more likely
Just saw this and laughed. Android is, in 2010, the 2nd-biggest smartphone OS (which is a kick in the pants for Symbian, which is mainly dumbphone, set aside Nxx series) and gaining. I'm more optimistic for webOS, but I hope Google buys Palm. Think of it: widgets on webOS. Alternatively, HTC is thinking of making their own OS. TouchFlo3D/SenseUI + webOS-UI = awesome.
As long as Palm continues to allow redundant worthless apps, I cannot see Palm making a dent in the market share. Android has more share than Apple due to the many-many functional apps in the Android Market . I am hoping Palm will give me a reason to keep my Pre and return the Hero I picked up. Apps such as, VVM, video recording, etc. Are essential to the work I do. Something as simple as TxT forward makes a big difference. I am sure there are many others who feel the same way. I have associates in the real estate industry, VVM and video recording are icing on the cake.
I'm fairly confident that with the way things are going with new international launches, product lines, and with future platform upgrades, that that figure should at least be x5 that projection in 2012. I mean Maemo having larger market share in 2012? Have these guys even used or seen that platform, or seen how Nokia have been dropping the ball lately?!
What I'm trying to say is that at least with regards to WebOS, they're WAY off.
I think Gartner is more famous for being dead wrong than right. Didn't they once declare that OS/2 Warp was going to give Windows a run for its money? dellibedaboss is right. this os has only been available for public consumption for 120 or so days?
Incent developers to port their stuff. "The Ecstasy of Gold" is a powerful motivator. If there's money to be made, the Pre will flourish.
I have a feeling that they are extrapolating from current Pre sales, which is a poor way to predict the future. It would suggest that Palm needs to step up shipments from current levels if that's the case.
I've been watching Gartner mis-predict the future for over a decade now. Many of their predictions are just laughable, both at the time they are made and in retrospect. Gartner predicted "VOIP everywhere in five years" every year for many, *many* years before VOIP started to get any significant market penetration, for example.
Anyway, a market as dynamic is the smartphone OS market is right now is essentially impossible to predict that far in the future. Someone with solid sales numbers from all smartphone manufacturers could reasonably predict six months out, could make good guesses a year out, but 2-1/2 years out? Puh-leaze. Too much is in flux right now for any prediction that far out to be more than a SWAG.
I think a few things have been over looked here in this article. Let's define "Smart Phone". The way I see it, there are very few out there. iphone, blackberry, android, webos and windows mobile are about it. Symbian is not really a smart phone os. I would call it a "phone" os. Next, Palm will probably be purchased by a larger entity. Look for someone like Microsoft, Nokia, Motorola etc... to buy Palm. This will more than likely help web os market share. These projections are a joke. You must first define "smart phone" before you make a projection. Why not call it global phone sales number etc... Countries like China, India and others will buy the cheap stuff. Their average worker can't afford what we can in the developed world. That is why a crappy phone like Nokia (Symbian OS) may have big sales numbers across the world, but it doesn't make it a SMART PHONE!
More people using phones with generic Linux than WebOS? That seems unlikely.
None of us can see the future gang! You have to take this information for what it's really worth. These are just projections, and in business, they're not worth more than the value you give them. No crystal ball, and I really don't see in my limited knowledge of the industry, that this is how it'll play out. So I wouldn't get to excited over it.
These guys of Garnet really missed their point with these projections. I will take it as a failed speculation from now.
Speculation is speculation. Did anyone is speculate two years ago, that Palm would make the WebOS, nope!
I think the smart phone is similar to the pc/mac wars in the early 80s. I have a feeling that either Apple or RIM will disappear after a while. Windows Mobile and Andriod will stay in some forms, since they are not controlled by one manufacturer.
The only thing is that the WebOS needs to expand beyond phones.
I think there is some truth in the report - the upcoming N900 with Maemo 5 shows what the potential of Maemo is (and easily matches even WebOS in multitasking). Lower cost/smaller/thinner devices running Maemo 5 will take the Europe-AsiaPacific market shares quickly. An 8Gb/16gb Maemo 5 running N-xxx Nokia device will sell like crazy in Singapore/Malaysia/China/India and other markets.
I think you have to look outside America. Nokia with Symbian (E71, E75, E63, N97, N95 etc)commands a HUGE market share in Europe & Asia.
Consider this - Apple sold only 22,000 iphones in India over a year - their market presence anywhere outside US and Europe is nothing to write home about.
And as far as WebOS is concerned, people outside US and Europe, who comprise 4/5th of the world's population, are still to get their hands, infact even HEAR about the Pre and Pixi from a relatively unknown company called Palm.
Even if they do, the distribution and service network is just not there.
I truly hope, on the other hand, that Palm ramps up and expands quickly to get volumes. That's the only way WebOS will thrive. *fingers crossed*
I can't think of a better word for my severe dislike for Gartner but "Bull$h1t!"
Nokia posts $836 million quarterly loss, smartphone share down to 35%
"One disappointment came from smartphones, or "converged devices" as Nokia calls it. Those volumes slipped to 16.4 million units from 16.9 million units in the second quarter. Rivals in that segment include Apple and Research in Motion"
I think it's perfectly clear now that Nokia is not doing very well EVEN OUTSIDE AMERICA
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-reports-836-mln-loss-on-equipment...
we'll just have to wait and see if they can turn it around. But there is NO argument that now they are losing market share globally.
I think WinMo and BB are too high, Android and iPhone about right, webOS and Maemo too low. WinMo and BB look really outdated right now, and are going to be really low if they don't do something big and soon, with iPhone OS and Android ramping up corporate support. Android's Windows(PC)-esque strategy about hardware seems to be working, and iPhone, while rather childish, has a "cool" factor from its apple silhouette. Palm is likely to be bought out by another company. HTC and RIM look like good candidates, as BB-OS looks a bit too much like PalmOS Classic to thrive in 2010, so they really need a makeover. HTC would be good because they are starting on their own OS, and webOS is similar to Android, which HTC does a lot for. Either way, webOS looks good. Maemo is a good OS, if small, and Nokia has the muscle to back it up, especially if they expand it to lower-end Exx and Nxx phones as well as the high-end Nxxx models.